An update on the Cash Transfer "Scheme"

Touted as a "Game Changer", the direct "cash transfer" program of the government is being tested in a few locations. Some initial comments:

1. Questioning the rationale
2. The early experiment
3. What's the rush
4. Identity yes but eligibility?
5. And a view from a recent government man

As usual, the FM, given to hyperbole, ignores the negative feedback and calls it "pure magic" ! He no doubt is referring to the programs ability to make money vanish like magic !

Some interesting articles

Interesting reading:

1. The Nehru-Gandhi family's track record on freedom of speech
2. The in-effectiveness of the much touted "strategic partnership" India as with the USA

And this one from last week for a lesson in the worst form of logic and for having the temerity to suggest that not being literate in English also means lack of sophistication of thought !! If only the writer had a brain !

Retail - End of the debate

Finally, the government of the day was able to get parliament to approve foreign investment in multi brand retail. It is indeed a sad reflection of  Indian democracy that while most speakers and parties in Parliament were opposed to the policy, fear of CBI and perhaps their own party calculations forced some to stage either a walkout, or as in the case of BSP, to actually vote in favour of the government.

MJ Akbar's latest article summarises the issues well.

Some related issues get highlighted -

1. Power of the central government to manipulate the smaller parties through a threat of CBI action. The "lokpal" proponents had long argued that an "independent" CBI, which does not require government approval to investigate and pursue the corrupt is needed to weed out the evil of corruption. The current vote shows the dangers of a CBI that is handmaiden of the centre.

2. The need for a "bipartisan" body that investigates and prepares the background paper for financial impact of government decisions - along the line of the CBO in the US Congress. Debates on policy in India are rarely backed by a common set of assumptions and figures. Consequently, there is little that the public is able to get out of debates - with most speakers talking AT each other rather with each other. Another by-product of this would be to restrict the discretion that the Centre has to offer largess to "compliant" states while holding back financial assistance to those who dont agree with them. 

And for those who continue to treat all foreign investment "liberalization" proposals as "reform" a shift is  happening in economic thinking  - a slow move away from the extreme right. As always, when there is a stress in society, "left" leaning thinking becomes more acceptable. Read Krugman here.

Global warming - still confusing

The climate change and global warming debate continues to remain confusing. Depending on what you read, the evidence on both sides seems overwhelming. Goes to show that when we are dealing with long data series which is itself derived out of various assumptions, the outcome will be what you want it to be.

An interesting article on the issues of calculating a "base temperature" to start with - and possible manipulation by the pro lobby.

Elections & Banking - Red Light Ahead

My last month's column for Wealth Insight:

While private banks are part of any investor’s portfolio, PSU banks have to remain a trading play 
While private banks are part of any investor’s portfolio, PSU banks have to remain a trading play

By Anand Tandon | Nov 24, 2012

The year 2012 has been and continues to be an election-heavy year – with 7 state assemblies completing their terms. Elections are a time when politicians are at their “promising best” – often promising voters rewards in the form of lower power tariffs, waiver of farm loans, and nowadays computers, TVs and other goodies. It is common knowledge that elections spoil rural credit culture: farmers wait for elections for waiver of overdue credit, and are too often rewarded with it. I recently came across a working paper published by Harvard Business School which offers some interesting insights. Authored by Shawn Cole (http://www.hbs.edu/research/pdf/09-001.pdf), the paper establishes some important points which have implications for investing in bank stocks.

Higher credit, but no increase in production
Using data for 32 elections conducted across 19 states over 8 years, Cole establishes that in an election year, agri-credit portfolio of state owned banks (PSU banks) increases 5-10 per cent. Private sector banks, on the other hand, do not reveal any such increase. This increase cannot be attributed to rainfall, population or any productivity-linked variable. Importantly, the paper establishes that increased credit does not result in increased output.

Higher defaults, and write-offs
Another related observation is that while the average increase in credit is 8 per cent, the increase (peak to trough) in defaults increases 16 per cent. While it should be expected that an increase in credit will lead to higher bad loans, the increase of 16 per cent is too high to be explained by just the rise in credit.
Data also reveals that post the election, the bad-loan percentage falls quickly. This is not because recoveries increase – the author suggests that the drop is a result of write-offs that the banks undertake to live up to the pre-election promises made by the politicians.

Higher benefits to areas where election results are uncertain
The areas that seem to get the largest bump up in credit are those that are viewed as being at the margin with regard to the ability of the ruling party to win elections. The study revealed that areas where the ruling party/coalition won by a margin of 15 per cent or more, received almost 5-6 per cent lower credit than those areas where the voting was closer. In other words, bank loans were being used as a means to “buy” votes in “swing” districts.

The “committed” voter received a different reward: he had his loans written off! Where the margin of victory exceeds 15 per cent, “forgiven” loans increase, leading to an almost 27 per cent drop in figures of delayed loans. Other areas, where the ruling party lost, do not witness such largess. The formula seems to be inducement before and reward after.

Implications for investing in banks
The paper re-establishes the notion that politicians will use whatever resources they can to win elections. It also explains why government of the day does not wish to reduce its investment in state owned banks to lower than 51 per cent, despite facing the daunting prospect of having to invest between Rs 1 trillion and Rs 2.5 trillion over the next ten years. This, despite the investment yielding poor returns – dividends to shareholders are lower than borrowing cost; capital gains are notional since policy does not allow equity to be sold since government holding is already near the 51 per cent threshold in many cases. After all, who would voluntarily wish to give up the means of “purchasing” voter goodwill.

Without going into the moral or ethical dilemma that this poses, what does this imply for the average investor?
It has long been known that whenever a new chairman takes charge, there is a sudden jump in the non-performing assets of banks. This is particularly true for state owned banks. SBI offered a great example at the last change of guard. Consequently, investing just after a new chairman takes over is hazardous for investors. Better to wait a couple of quarters for the “clean-up” to be visible.

To this, we now add another tool – whenever an election is due, state owned banks operating in that state will likely witness a sharp increase in agricultural credit in the year prior to the election, followed by increased write-offs. Consequently, investment in such banks is best avoided till atleast 6 months after the elections to enable the write-offs to work through the system.

The current year has seen a revival in the stock market. However, state owned banks have significantly underperformed. A combination of inadequate capital, larger exposure to poorly performing sectors, and consequently, higher re-structured loans have driven valuations to below stated book in most cases. In addition, it is possible that the market is already factoring in the decline that is likely in agri-credit portfolio for reasons stated earlier.

Inefficient capital allocation increase societal costs in many ways. Taxes have to increase to pay for government spend; including the capital required to be infused in banks. This is an indirect transfer from urban to rural India since farmers are not directly taxed. Another impact is lack of accountability of state owned banks for their performance resulting in below par customer experience and higher cost ratios. In a perverse way, the private banks benefit, since they gain a greater share of the market due to better product and service, despite having to work harder to raise capital which is “freely” available to their state owned competitors.

While private banks will form part of any investor’s portfolio, state owned banks have to remain a trading play. Consistent performance for state owned banks will have to wait till the level of government ownership and control falls to lower levels. However, given that politicians across the world attempt to use public institutions for private ends, it will be a long time coming.

CAG Reports and the Markets

My column for Wealth Insight on the CAG reports is here. The article is reproduced below

CAG deserves the kudos of all right- thinking Indians for raising the level of public debate

The Comptroller and Auditor General of India (CAG) is not a position most people in India have been familiar with. This changed recently when CAG reports repeatedly made headlines claiming massive loot of the public exchequer. In August, a multitude of reports hit the Parliament — all pointing out lacunae in government policy and putative losses. The government’s spin masters went to work quickly. While some attempted to show that the CAG reports overstepped their mandate, others challenged the content of reports — in particular, the attempt to quantify losses arising to the public from flawed implementation of policy. Yet others have attempted to question the motives of the CAG.

Irrespective of the outcome, Vinod Rai — the incumbent CAG – deserves the kudos of all right- thinking Indians for raising the level of public debate. Every once in a while, a leader comes along who uses the full power of a constitutional authority. The Election Commission underwent such a change under TN Seshan. I hope this continues even after Rai demits office.

Analysis is succinct yet comprehensive
CAG has released a number of reports. For want of space, I discuss only the report on Ultra Mega Power Projects (UMPP) here. The report — something I recommend all to read for its lucid and incisive analysis is available at http://saiindia.gov.in/english/home/Recent/Recent.html. If only analysts wrote as clearly and authoritatively!

The report makes several points with regard to the allocation of UMPP licences and related coal reserves:
# The government did not follow its own rules — starting with appointment of the bid consultant
# Terms of the bid were altered to suit certain bidders (in particular Reliance power or RPL, the eventual winner), by diluting requirements of ownership, investment, and experience
# Extra land was allotted despite a study to show that it was in excess. No effort was made to recover the land despite it being established that it was in excess
# Allotment of coal blocks were made — in excess of the requirement — despite having no justification or study to show the need
# The excess coal was allowed to be diverted to another project — tariff for which was already determined based on the need to buy coal. This clearly amounted to violation of bid conditions in favour of Reliance Power
# The report quotes from RPL’s own estimates which put the extra gain to the company from the allotted coal to the tune of Rs 29,000 crore It is worth recalling that Tata Power has a case pending in the Supreme Court challenging the use of coal allotted for Sasan for Chitrangi Project (as approved by the Empowered Group of Ministers, or EGOM).

The defence
RPL’s defence is simple. They are not responsible for the excess coal, that the allocation of the extra mine has been ratified by the EGOM twice — once in 2008, and again in 2012. There are also somewhat gratuitous comments suggesting that CAG’s recommendation of reviewing the allocation of coal would result in India continuing to remain short of coal.

The argument is self-serving. Of course the allotment of mines has to be a government decision! The mines belong to the public and are being allotted. To suggest that this happens without intervention of the beneficiary is to stretch credulity to the point of breaking. To assert that without the mines being allotted to RPL, India would remain short of coal is laughable. First, the mines have not yet started delivering anything. Also, there are other perfectly capable companies that can mine the coal, and would pay for it.

The government’s defence is even more pathetic. To the primary allegation of extra allotment, the ministry of power has responded that the Attorney General of India has opined that the decision of the EGOM in 2008 was “well considered” — and hence the recommendation of the CAG that the extra allotment be withdrawn, may be ignored. It begs the question on why the EGOM allotted the extra mine in the first place, and why it felt imperative to overrule the conditions of allotment. Sample this: ‘The coal produced from these mines would be exclusively used in the Sasan UMPP.’

The other points are even more wishy-washy — and have been torn down in the report of the CAG itself with arguments that seem perfectly reasonable.

Greater transparency: churn in the index
The reports will now be referred to the Public Accounts Committee, where the matter is unlikely to result in corrective action. Given that this cannot be blamed on allies (unlike the 3G imbroglio), it would result in serious embarrassment for an already embattled government.

However, it may and hopefully will, result in a new and clearer policy of allotment of natural resources, in particular coal. Short-term, this may result in even slower decision making. Our shortage of coal is likely to continue. Longer term, the challenge of allotment of scare resources — airwaves, coal and iron ore, and even concessions to operate airports and roads — is likely to become more streamlined. Clear policies will remove the politicians’ ability to “seek rent” — a polite term for extracting money from public goods. With that, infrastructure companies will be less attractive to secondary investors — as unpredictable upsides are unlikely to occur. This may result in another shake up in the index. Currently 40 per cent of the index capitalisation is from companies dependent on energy, coal, and steel — all industries benefiting from ability to influence government policy. A reduction of this number over the next decade will represent the coming of age of the Indian economy.

Manipulation by design

My take on central banking as it appears in Wealth Insight here. The article is reproduced below:

Barclay’s CEO, Bob Diamond, recently lost his job. In the aftermath of the financial crisis in 2008, Tucker, Deputy Governor of the Bank of England (BoE), telephoned Diamond. Tucker, apparently, indicated that Barclay’s Libor rate “did not always need to be as high as (they) have (been) recently”. Diamond passed on the message to his team — who took this as indication from the BoE to report lower rates — which they proceeded to do. Investigations of this “rigging” have so far led to resignations of the Chairman, CEO and COO of Barclays. Barclays has been fined £290 million for this attempted “manipulation”.

Can’t “fix” rates on your own
The Libor is calculated (fixed) by Thomson Reuters on behalf of the British Bankers’ Association by taking a poll of a panel of banks (16 banks for pound, 18 for USD) just prior to 11 AM. The survey asks banks the rates at which they “think” they can borrow. No actual transaction takes place. It is at best an “oligopolistic” rate — a “survey” rate. The four lowest and four highest rates are then eliminated and the Libor is calculated by taking an average of the rest. If Barclays was consistently reporting higher rates than the rest, it would have been eliminated. Even an “in sample” bank will have a weight of about 10 per cent. Overall, any single bank can skew the rate only by a few basis points (1/100th of a per cent) at best.

In markets where money moves freely across borders, rates in one currency cannot dramatically differ across borders. One way to check if the Libor was completely out of whack is to check its correlation with the T-bills rate in the US — the rate at which the US government borrows. The US T-bill rate in turn tracks the Fed Fund rate — a rate which the US Federal Reserve “manages” by intervention in the money markets (which includes printing dollars when needed). As the graph on the next page shows, barring the spike in 2008 (caused more by liquidity tightening post Lehman), there seems to be no systematic drift in the value of Libor vs T-bills.

The elephant in the room
Policy statements of Central Banks are watched carefully — for one primary reason. As the monopolistic printer of money, the Central Bank in any economy is in the business of managing (manipulating) interest rates. It is what they do. It is their mandate.

In 2008, a sharp fall in housing prices — caused in no small measure by the US Fed allowing an asset price bubble to be formed, led central banks the world over to lower interest rates. This increased asset prices, thereby shoring up the balance sheets of banks. This was manipulation — as is all policy “intervention” by Central Banks. In that context, Barclays executives cannot be faulted for doing what they thought their regulator wanted them to do. It seems strange logic that the bank is being penalised for working on the directions of the Bank of England.

Banks — more equal than others
In a recent interview to Business Line, Dr YV Reddy, the former Governor of the Reserve Bank of India, is quoted as having said, “The government licenses banks to accept non-collateralised deposits — virtually telling people that your deposits are safe. The banks, in turn, agree to lend to government whenever the government wants. This is a compact. In some sense, it is the biggest con game going on”. The implied sovereign guarantee allows banks to leverage their balance sheet 10 times, magnifying the return on equity. The heightened risk is mitigated by the back-stop of the central bank. This sets up moral hazards. Bankers get incentivised for taking risks — if the risks materialise, the Central Bank steps in. Else, bankers receive outsize bonuses on profits from highly leveraged transactions.

Shared area indicate US recessions 2012 research.stlouisfed.org

Central Banks were set up with the objective to bring stability to the monetary system. In reality however, their intervention has led to increased volatility and boom and bust cycles. When the banks involved are “too big to fail”, the problem becomes that of the tax payers.

Unintended consequences
The power to manipulate markets is not easily controlled. Borrowers — corporations and consumers (home loans and consumption loans) — lobby central banks for lower rates irrespective of the economic situation. When was the last you heard a demand for higher interest rates when the economy was over-heating?
However, when growth slows, the clamour for lower rates rapidly rises.

Lobbying also ensures that shareholders are not penalised. In 2008 public money was liberally used to bail out banks in the US — directly through investment, and indirectly through monetary policy. The ownership of stressed banks and financial institutions remains with the original owners — a situation where profits are private and losses are public! Central planning for the economy has failed. Will centrally-planned monetary systems follow?