Nuclear Upsets

If it seems to be a season of "I told you so", I cant help it ! The PM's much touted success in the Indo US nuclear pact is now in tatters. To use the words of my favourite strategic affairs writer Brahma Chellaney,

the deal has come to symbolize the travails of the Singh government — scandals, broken promises, malfeasance, poor public accountability, and the resort to casuistry to camouflage reality. The cash-for-votes scandal in Parliament set the stage for the other scams that have followed.

Even writers who were earlier supporting the deal, have had to do an about face. Writing for the Hindu, Dr Anil Kakodkar, who had earlier been co-opted by the government in negotiating the "deal" with the NSG expresses

Nuclear Suppliers' Group (NSG)..additional restrictions for transfer of ENR (enrichment and reprocessing) technologies with adherence to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) being a condition for transfer has caused huge unease in India

 Vardarajan, the Hindu's strategic affairs analyst, and a former supporter of the deal too, has had to admit that the deal is dead.

Meanwhile, China has gone ahead and "grandfathered" another two reactors for Pakistan. In other words, without committing anything, Pakistan has as much access to technology and fuel as India has after it has waived its sovereign rights to develop its own nuclear techology for its protection. Ofcourse, India is open to buying reactors from the rest of the world, when Germany and now Japan have taken legislative steps to shut down nuclear power, given its unviability when total cost of operations and accidents are accounted for.

It may serve our negotiators well to remember that NSG was set up as an Anti India cartel. Nothing has changed. The latest guidelines on technology transfer impact only one country - India.

The cost of attack - revisited

I started this blog in the aftermath of the attack in Mumbai in 2008. Life has come a full circle. The terrorists have struck this again this week. At that time I had mentioned that it was almost inevitable that there would be another attack since India did not have a strategy to increase the cost of attack for the terrorists.
This view is being echoed now by Brahma Chellaney when he writes

"The ugly truth is that transnational terrorists see India as an easy target because it imposes no costs on them and their patrons."

The sad part is that the government's response is pathetic. In Jan 2009, I had pointed out the hollowness of Mr. Chidambaram's remarks when he commented the price that the perpetrators of the attack would pay if it were repeated would be enormous! So what is the price they are paying? Mr. Chidambaram's credibility for one. His latest comment that "there was no intelligence failure because there was no intelligence" seems kafkaesque.

Mention must also be made of the perversion of the Congress spokesperson Digvijay Singh, who yet again raised the issue of "Hindu Terror" by pointing a finger at the possible involvement of RSS in the blast, while admitting that he had no evidence to back it. Considering that he is supposed to be the mouthpiece of Shri Rahul Gandhi, who had earlier mentioned the same "terror" to the US Ambassador (wikileaks report), it is a wonder that we are not heading for another split based on religion (ofcourse, the communal BJP is to blame, not the "secular" Congress).

My sincere condolence to those who lost their dear ones, and a word of advice - stay away from crowds - this attack is not likely to be the last !