Retail - End of the debate

Finally, the government of the day was able to get parliament to approve foreign investment in multi brand retail. It is indeed a sad reflection of  Indian democracy that while most speakers and parties in Parliament were opposed to the policy, fear of CBI and perhaps their own party calculations forced some to stage either a walkout, or as in the case of BSP, to actually vote in favour of the government.

MJ Akbar's latest article summarises the issues well.

Some related issues get highlighted -

1. Power of the central government to manipulate the smaller parties through a threat of CBI action. The "lokpal" proponents had long argued that an "independent" CBI, which does not require government approval to investigate and pursue the corrupt is needed to weed out the evil of corruption. The current vote shows the dangers of a CBI that is handmaiden of the centre.

2. The need for a "bipartisan" body that investigates and prepares the background paper for financial impact of government decisions - along the line of the CBO in the US Congress. Debates on policy in India are rarely backed by a common set of assumptions and figures. Consequently, there is little that the public is able to get out of debates - with most speakers talking AT each other rather with each other. Another by-product of this would be to restrict the discretion that the Centre has to offer largess to "compliant" states while holding back financial assistance to those who dont agree with them. 

And for those who continue to treat all foreign investment "liberalization" proposals as "reform" a shift is  happening in economic thinking  - a slow move away from the extreme right. As always, when there is a stress in society, "left" leaning thinking becomes more acceptable. Read Krugman here.

Congratulations President Mukherjee

First, heartiest congratulations to Mr. Pranab Mukherjee on his appointment as the 13th President of India. Compared to the incumbent, whose nomination had raised many an eyebrow given the somewhat less than salubrious past of her immediate family, Mr Mukherjee's accession to the Presidency is likely to be welcomed by most.

 

I visited the website of the new President elect just a few moment ago. The link is below - but since it is likely to get updated (hopefully soon), I have cut and paste a small part of the right column. The election results are updated, so the site is live and the webmaster is awake. However, he seems to see no contradiction on sending a message thanking the electorate for their support - while continuing to request the electorate to vote for the Congress. 

 

Results

Shri Pranab Mukherjee has defeated his opponent by128252votes
We are immensely grateful to all the people who directly & indirectly supported us.

JAI HO INDIA JAYAHE JAN GAN MAN-SUPPORT CONGRESS FOR A STABLE INDIA

I hope that Pranab da will quickly forget that he was a part of the Congress over the past few decades - and accept the role of a President who represents the Constitution - and not some political affiliation. The President's post is meant to be above party affiliations. The President is NOT a member of any party. As chance would have it, one of India's most senior politician now occupies that post.

The Prime Minister's post on the other hand, IS the most important Political post in the executive - and is meant to be held by the most senior politician with the ability to lead his party to power in an election. Here, we have someone who has not won ANY election where the people have voted directly - nor would he have been able to win a party election if one were to be held.  Instead, he holds his position as a nominee. I hope, for the sake of India, that this changes quickly too. Jai Ho.

Anna - The end of a beginning

Democracy is defined as “rule of the people” – and the Indian democracy showed that it is just that. Last evening was a red-letter day in Indian democracy - as Parliament passed a resolution to take on board the three demands that Anna Hazare had raised before it.

Anti-protest commentators which included a pro-government channel, and members of the NAC (an extra-constitutional body that "advises" the government on law-making - a clear case of constitutional impropriety) kept up the charade that these protests in some way detracted from India's democracy. My take on three key issues that were raised :

1.       Supremacy of Parliament – huh? What’s that?

A key claim was that Parliament is supreme in law making and that the agitation somehow diminished the “prestige” of parliament. Absolute Balderdash!  Nowhere in the constitution is there either a direct or implied “supremacy” given to the Parliament. Quite the opposite - The constitution is clear that the PEOPLE are supreme, when it states “We the People of India..... do Hereby Adopt, Enact and give to Ourselves this constitution”. MP’s are but representatives of the wishes of the people. The "confused" are mistaking procedural matters for “fundamental” issues.

2.       This is “mobocracy” and somehow sets a bad precedent. First, we have to agree that self regulating bodies rarely work. Allegations of corruption and nepotism in higher judiciary, a medical council that refuses to book errant doctors, and failed self-regulation in the case of life insurance companies are cases in point. If we agree, then when it comes to making laws that effect the law-makers and the bureaucracy, self-regulation will not work, and we HAVE to take into account the wishes of the people directly.

Can this be repeated? We have only to look at the case of Swami Nigamananda, who died earlier this year fasting against the government's inability (or worse) to implement a supreme court decision against illegal mining in the Ganga river bed, or that of Irom Sharmila from Manipur who is protesting against Armed Forces Special powers Act for the past decade. In both cases, the public imagination could not be captured, and while both causes are legitimate, they have failed to attract anywhere near the kind of public participation to force the government to act. To see Anna's protest as something that can be easily replicated displays a misunderstanding on what led to the massive public support that the movement generated. If our politicians do not get this, they are really not in touch with their constituents and should anyways be voted out.

3.       The Lokpal bill will not stop corruption. This must rank as among the silliest complaints. Courts and police do not stop crime, they just create enough of a disincentive to stop most people from committing them. Likewise, Lokpal may not stop corruption – where ever there are people, there will be greed and some will succumb. However, it will hopefully create some disincentive. Additionally, as I have argued in the past – what prevents us from modifying and improving the law once it is enacted. Should we start with an imperfect law or wait another 50 years in the hope we will get a “perfect” one.

The debate in parliament showed up the real leaders. Sushma Swaraj sparkled, Sharad Yadav argued like a has-been, and Anand Sharma rambled. Our PM was ofcourse silent - but could you expect anything else?

Anna - The idea

Watching the "release" of Anna from jail - its an uplifting moment.

The spin doctors of the government - viz NDTV have this as a comment - "Anna's rally a traffic hazard?" This statement says it all - when the popular mood is fired like rarely before, when people have left their work to vent their frustrations against their elected representatives and are protesting against rising prices, looting politicians and corporate leaders and general corruption, our Nero's in government are hiding behind bluster and legalese.

The mark of political leadership is to sense the popular mood and to take a position that allows one to LEAD it. The bureaucrat will fight it, and sulk if not successful. I have always believed that in a democracy, when enough people feel that they need to do something, things change. It appears that we are at one such defining moment in our history. All power to Anna Hazare.

What scenario is likely to play out? The UPA will no doubt attempt to use delay as a tactic - submit the bill to a standing committee for discussion, and hope that the momentum behind Anna fades away.

What can the Anti-corruption camp do? As I see it, the best option is to co-opt the politicians - now that they have them on the mat. I hope Anna asks all his followers to call up their MP's and ask a simple "yes/no" question - are they willing to support the bill UNCHANGED in parliament. If enough answer yes - its game over. If not, we will have clearly identified who needs to be voted out. The finessed argument that PARTS of the bill are acceptable is silly - any law can be amended later. What is the harm in setting up a law and then allowing its functioning to determine how it is to be modified. After all, there is hardly any law that works well when first drafted!

Another scenario that can play out is that the UPA partners withdraw support, and let the government fall. An early election would be the best opportunity for this country to find new leaders. Who will come in is anyone's guess - but we would have restored the primacy of the people over the parliament - something that the current lot seem to have forgotten.

I hope for the first, will be happy for the next, and dread the status quo. 

Bungling government

India is an emerging economy. We are now emerging as one of the important players on the world stage. There are many forces that would not like to see India realize its true place in the Comity of Nations. We must not play into their hands. We must not create an environment in which our economic progress is hijacked by internal dissension.

Indira Gandhi reborn? Not really, this is the never-elected Manmohan Singh who is seeing signs of a "foreign hand" in the popular uprising against the corruption in his government. The hamhandedness of the government response - trying to put the blame of Anna Hazare's arrest on the police, portraying Anna as corrupt, and last but not least - attempting to present Rahul Gandhi as the person responsible for his "release" - reflects the lack of leadership that the party currently suffers from.

Perhaps, the bunch of lawyers advising the PM should seek solace in Chidambaram's earlier statement - the response cannot be termed "intelligence failure" - there was no intelligence after all !

The cost of attack - revisited

I started this blog in the aftermath of the attack in Mumbai in 2008. Life has come a full circle. The terrorists have struck this again this week. At that time I had mentioned that it was almost inevitable that there would be another attack since India did not have a strategy to increase the cost of attack for the terrorists.
This view is being echoed now by Brahma Chellaney when he writes

"The ugly truth is that transnational terrorists see India as an easy target because it imposes no costs on them and their patrons."

The sad part is that the government's response is pathetic. In Jan 2009, I had pointed out the hollowness of Mr. Chidambaram's remarks when he commented the price that the perpetrators of the attack would pay if it were repeated would be enormous! So what is the price they are paying? Mr. Chidambaram's credibility for one. His latest comment that "there was no intelligence failure because there was no intelligence" seems kafkaesque.

Mention must also be made of the perversion of the Congress spokesperson Digvijay Singh, who yet again raised the issue of "Hindu Terror" by pointing a finger at the possible involvement of RSS in the blast, while admitting that he had no evidence to back it. Considering that he is supposed to be the mouthpiece of Shri Rahul Gandhi, who had earlier mentioned the same "terror" to the US Ambassador (wikileaks report), it is a wonder that we are not heading for another split based on religion (ofcourse, the communal BJP is to blame, not the "secular" Congress).

My sincere condolence to those who lost their dear ones, and a word of advice - stay away from crowds - this attack is not likely to be the last !

Lessons from West Bengal - the Left front is dead, long live the left

Didi, with her emotive appeal to mother, land and people, has brought to an end the over-three-decade rule of the left front. A rule that had many capitalists in a tizzy, but apparently enjoyed the support of the masses.

One of the early successes of the left front was a much-touted redistribution of land to the landless. While I studied in school in Calcutta in the 70's, most economists sung praises of the land reforms made by the Left. Redistribution of natural resources was expected to lead to even development, and uplift the poor. This "redistribution" often took a grotesque turn - I remember hearing of the "rich" being attacked in Calcutta's bustling markets - the attackers angry that they spent money while the poor slept hungry. The exodus of industry that marked this phase of Naxal violence did little to erode the popular base of the Left Front. Of course, the electoral victories were often cemented by thugs ensuring that areas that were prone to vote for the opposition were often under siege at the time of elections.

Ironically, while the cognoscenti have often written off the left front, it began losing its popular sheen only when it started to adopt a more capitalistic approach. Much is being made of the fact that the Left's loss will now promise a phase of economic growth for Kolkata - but will it? The victor is not a right leaning party with proven will to foster development - instead - it is the very same party that took on the government when it attempted to procure land for the Left governmernt's strongest attempt in recent times at getting large industry to come to the State.

Earlier attempts too have not succeeded. When the State government allotted land for an IT park at the outskirts of Kolkata - at Rajarhat, most of the IT majors expressed support, but very few set up their campuses. Despite a well developed education inftrastructure (at least in the capital city) and with low wages, adequate electricity and good infrastructure ( Rajarhat had its roads made well before even the first building came up), the area even today remains a ghost town - a promise unfulfilled.  

What does this mean for the new government? TMC has come to power with industry friendly faces - the new finance minister will likely be Amit Mitra, the former Secretary General of the Ficci - the industry association. Apparently, more money has been raised from business houses in Mumbai - for the election campaign of TMC than from Bengal. But is the mandate one for development? or is it simply a desire for change (even the lugubrious bengali has finally decided to lift a finger to vote against the long rule of the left front), and importantly, a protest by rural Bengal against land acquisition and industry? After all, while Kolkata and its "bhadra log" have often voted against the Left, it is perhaps for the first time in decades, that the left has lost its mandate from rural bengal.

So while we in the Capital markets may celebrate the possibility of "economic reform" in Bengal - which ironically, usually means more money for the rich and greater income diversity, I think it would be naive to believe that the mandate is for this. What I do expect, is that the first couple of years will be pay-back time for the capitalist backers of the TMC. So, one way or another, the Capital markets will applaud Didi's wooing of capitalist India with offers of cheap resources from west bengal. Once the first couple of years are over, however, it will be a time to really examine what the voters want - and that, I am afraid, is perhaps not more capitalism!

Unfortunately, I think this election is more about the defeat of the Left front and less about the defeat of the Left ideology. Hold the champagne.

Anna Hazare - India's greatest hope

The fast that Anna has undertaken has focused the attention of the nation on the greatest internal threat - that of corruption. The popular response that this has generated can only restore faith in India's democracy. There is one aspect which I find very puzzling. In countries like Egypt entrenched autocracies needed popular movements against them to change. In India, we can simply vote them out. Why is the people movement not focused on demanding that their representatives take the lead in Parliament in championing the Jan Lokpal Bill - the focus of current attention. Instead, the focus seems to be on ignoring the political class.

A true reflection of the maturity of Indian democracy would be to have each constituency summon its representative and question him on his stance on the bill and demand that he support it. I think that would make it difficult for any government or party to NOT pull in the same direction.

Another possibility would of course have been for the "honest" PM to accept the demand to set up a committee to evaluate the bill. However, that would require a thinking man - and a leader, something this country certainly lacks. 

Integrity Dr Singh?

The CVC is appointed over the protest of the Leader of Opposition. The person has been chargesheeted in a case. And is one of the persons responsible for the 2G scam. The Supreme Court questions how the person can be investigating cases of corruption. The CVC still occupies office, though there is just a chance he may resign.

The election commissioner was appointed while there were allegations of having received money in a charity run by him, from ruling party members.

Raja was finally ousted by pressure from the parliament - and is now being investigated.

His boss - Dr. Singh, continues in office, unscathed and unaffected - constitutional propriety be damned.

Teesta Setalvad is now being investigated by a sessions court for filing false affidavits. A Delhi court had to instruct the Delhi police to file an FIR against Arundhati Roy and her separatist supporters - over-ruling the objections of the police that no case was needed. For this government, Kashmir is not a problem, the government is busy finding and prosecuting "saffron terror".

Various government banks and bankers were found to be taking bribes, and are now being investigated.  Rumours abound that the aviation minister and his party boss have shareholding in two major private aviation companies - companies that he is supposed to regulate, and who have increased airfare by well over 100% in the past one year. Kalmadi roams free - the Rs70,000 crores that were spend to host the CWG remain to be investigated.

Government lies extend to economic growth figures. Gross fixed capital formation for the first quarter this year have been revised from 7.6% to 18.9% (because a new set of inflation deflators are being used) !

Indian defence is in tatters - the latest wikileaks quoted the USA ambassador as estimating that India's "cold start" military doctrine is now in cold storage !

Sometime earlier this year, a movie called LSD made waves. It could describe the operating motto of the Singh government. But Dr. Singh is an honourable man.

Hounding wikileaks

The Chinese government is often lectured for being secretive, of suppressing dissent . So are governments in several other parts of the world - Burma and Iran to name a few. Apparently, this same standard should not be applied to diplomatic missives - or so the US government would have you believe. Disclosing what goes on behind the diplomatic curtain is a crime !

USA government now wants to file a criminal case against Wikileaks founder. Paypal has stopped accepting payments to support the site, and google has stopped offering the site which it hosts. Both these service providers disclaim any pressure from the government. How believable is that?

Eventually, what matters is that ALL countries look after their own interest (and that usually means the interest of the government in power). So take the justification for the action against wikileaks - the assertion that this puts people at risk - for what it is - protestations of a government caught lying.

Managing expectations - learning from corporate India

One of the great achievements of recent years has been the ability of Infosys management to consistently set and beat analyst expectations. Quarter after unfailing quarter, Infosys manages to do better than forecasts. This has as much to do with running a great business, as it is to do with setting expectations. 


Whether Nandan Nilekani gets us a fool proof unique identity number as citizens of this country will be revealed as time passes. What is already visible however, is the lesson that the government has received from Mr Nilekani in managing analyst expectations. In my nearly two decades of watching the budget, never have I witnessed such perfect "expectation management" in the run-up. Most business channels and news papers were busy asking analysts if the two expectations that would lead to a post budget rally were - (1) 5.5% fiscal deficit (2) government borrowing not exceeding 4.5 lakh crores. When the budget was presented, lo and behold, these were both met, or bettered (in case 1 and 2 respectively). The market has rallied considerably since then, predictably with foreign investors in the vanguard. 


The latest case of this expectation management is NDTV highlighting that the Prime Minister actually stood up to Madam! Given his track record, this resembles  the claim of a hen-pecked husband - " I am the master of my house, and have my wife's permission to say so". A read of the linked news article offers a clue for this apparent show of spine. The RTI needs to be amended to avoid the Chief Justice of India from appearing before himself ! So while Madam is seen as doing the right thing, i.e advocating that the RTI act remain as it is, the PM cleans the poo left by an adamant CJI demanding that he remain above the law! Now the government will be seen to be doing the "wrong thing" but will be protected by the PM's reputation of personal probity. The master puppeteer will retain the moral high ground. A case of eating ones cake and having it too. 

Aman Ki Asha

The Times of India the Jung Group in Pakistan used the start of 2010 to "come together to develop a stronger Track 2 in the diplomatic and cultural relations between India and Pakistan". My daughter asked me a few days back on why I was not optimistic about this initiative.

First - let me state that a new year wish list for most Indians has to include peace with our neighbour, and I am no exception. That said, one of the problems with growing older (more cynical? or sadly, more realistic)is the development of the "sense of the possible". If peace between India and Pakistan were to be possible by cultural exchanges between the peoples of the two countries, we would perhaps have had peace a few decades ago.

The reality is that the Pak army is the largest economic power in that country, and, finally, all politics is an outcome of economics. For the Pak army to maintain its pre-eminent position in Pakistan, it must have an enemy that rallies its "subjects" - the people of Pakistan. India in currently the only country that can fill this need. Attacks against India are a given - only the timing is in question.

If I seem like a war monger, see this.

A very happy, and peaceful  new year to all.

Tracking US dollars in country reserves

Jeffrey Frankel is James W. Harpel Professor of Capital Formation and Growth at Harvard. He was appointed to the Council of Economic Advisers by President Clinton in 1996, and subsequently confirmed by the Senate.

His recent blog post on Dollar share in FX reserves of Central Banks is worth a read.

I am including the graph he puts in his article in this note. The US dollar (and the country) achieved international hegemony post World war II. A strong economy made a strong country and dollar became the "reserve currency". The world has come a full cycle. Arguments about - TINA - there is no alternative, will eventually have to face up to reality. When an alternative becomes a desperate enough need, it emerges.

Rising oil price - differing reasons - but no peak

Oil prices are rising again - up 65% in the current year. Reasons differ - Opec oil production cuts, data indicating economic recovery, political tension in Nigeria - take your pick. However, two recent newspaper articles written in different continents have rubbished the existence of Hubbert's Peak. This one in New York Times exhorts readers to rally against government attempt to conserve oil:

we can’t let the false threat of disappearing oil lead the government to throw money away on harebrained renewable energy schemes or impose unnecessary and expensive conservation measures on a public already struggling through tough economic times.

The other just blames OPEC. Don't forget to read the comments on this one - highly entertaining and informative.

So should one worry about oil and oil prices or not? Go figure

Forgettable few weeks

The past few weeks have been rather sad for the country. Increasingly, it is being realised that we cannot safely let our Prime Minister speak on foreign policy. Apologists will continue to cover up for India's inability to influence our neighbours and protect ourselves. Any serious defense analyst would realise how we are perilously weakening our position in the world and viewing ourselves from the US worldview. As Chellaney mentions in his column for Singh:

to say India cannot emerge as a great power without making peace with Pakistan. “It is in our vital interest, therefore, to try again to make peace with Pakistan.” By linking India’s global rise to the placation of Pakistan, Singh has hyphenated India with that country even more strikingly than any international actor

Chellaney's columm on China is another case in point.

The BJP too has lost its ability to appeal to the "liberal" right-of-centre. The removal of Jaswant Singh from the membership of the party and the banning of his book in Gujarat has to rank among the most intolerant and graceless acts that the party has committed in recent years. As an admirer of Atal Bihari Vajpayee and his vision of India, I had assumed that his ideals were also those of the party. Clearly that is far from the truth. I look, with just a tinge of anxiety, for a new alternative to the Congress that more closely seeks to build a strong, self-reliant and liberal India. That such an alternative offers itself quickly, has to be my prayer for this year as we celebrate the 62nd year of independent India.

Smart Managers for Smart Cards

Swaminathan Aiyar's article in the Times of India today on Nandan Nilekani's appointment in the government is worth a read. One can only wish Nandan Nilekani good luck and hope, for all our sakes, that his term is successful.

Outsourcing India's interest to the USA

The Prime Minister wants to re-start the Indo-Pak dialogue in anticipation of Washington's advise to do so. Since the Mumbai attacks, the government has been claiming success of India's diplomatic initiatives to exert international pressure on Pakistan to cease and desist from its support to jihadists and other terrorists in India. The reality is exactly the reverse. India seems to have lost the plot completely.

M J Akbar's article in the Times describes the problem of US perception and its own imperatives. As outlined by Brahma Chellaney , Pakistan attempts to portray itself as a failing state and extract international ransom has been hugely successful. By falling in line with the US demands, India continues to do itself a disfavour. This weakness is now apparent in the economic policy sphere as well - where USA is able to "persuade" Indian companies to toe its line in international markets.

If only we had a leadership that REALLY had a vision for a strong Indian state.

Politics as a profession

Many years ago, a friend in school remarked, at the end of a heated discussion on the future of Indian democracy, that no youngster in India from a "good" background aspired to the position of Prime Minister - when planning his/her career. The implication was that Indian democracy would remain the playground of the opportunists.

I was reminded of this conversation from my own childhood while watching an interview on NDTV recently.The anchor was interviewing a topper of one of the board exams. When asked about what he aspired to do in his career, the young boy remarked that he desired to enter politics as it was a way of serving society. If this indeed reflects the desire of more of India's educated youth, we can only be more sanguine of the future of Indian democracy.

India’s relations with US – Missing the Left

The Left front is no longer a force to reckon within the Indian Parliament for the next five years at the least. After supporting the previous UPA government for four and a half years, the Left and Congress fell out over relations with the US – and India started the process of getting closer to the USA.

I have argued elsewhere that aligning with the US was a mistake that India was making. That India should either have done it sixty years ago, or failing that, stayed in the shadows for another decade, when a declining economic clout of the USA and a rising graph for India would enable India to negotiate from a position of strength. Some early signs of the differences that exist in the world views of the USA and India are now visible.

While the PM was expressing his love for George Bush, or requesting the autograph of the new president, the USA was, rhetoric to the contrary notwithstanding, busy downgrading its relations with India. One of the best articulation of this is in the speech that Robert Blackwill, the former US ambassador to India delivered on May 5, 2009 at the CII conference at New Delhi

The Indian viewpoint is well articulated by Brahma Chellany

In International relationships, what matters is not what is said, but what is done. And what has been done by the US is to relegate India to the third hyphen in the troika of Afghanistan-Pakistan-India. That the government of the day seems to have managed to sell this to the Indian public as a winner of a relationship is itself an acknowledgement of the Congress’s ability at Spin – the opposition has a lot to learn in this regard

The dance of democracy – the next chapter begins

The greatest election mankind has ever witnessed has come to an end. The administrative machinery has performed a great job in collecting and delivering the verdict. That India can deliver a vote count of more than 300mn votes with a high degree of accuracy and within five hours or so of the start of counting (the trends were clear by then) is something we can all be proud off – the election commission can take a bow.

Now, it is time for analysis. In many senses, this election marks a turning point in the fortunes of our country. Though Dr. M Singh will start as the PM, it is highly likely that he will not end the five years as one. Rahul Gandhi is more than likely to take over somewhere along the way. This election will then mark the ascent to power of the first PM of India who has been born in Independent India. One of the advantages this may have is that we will be able to approach relations with our neighbours with none of the color that leaders of the earlier generation did – since there is no emotion involved.

A disquieting factor however is the likely continuing decrease in the quality of political debate. It may be postulated that politicians of post independent India maintained some (often very high) level of personal regard for those in opposing ideological camps. Even within the same political parties, differences of opinion were sorted out with some civility. Witness the case of Jawaharlal Nehru and Sardar Patel. Often the two stalwarts would not see eye to eye, but managed to work within the boundaries of decency. Presumably, this was in part because of the shared ideal of building an independent India, and the realization that others had, in their own ways, contributed too. I see this now disappearing – though surprisingly, this is visible in the quality of the PM’s response to the opposition campaign against him and his rule.

The quality of the political debate will also suffer because of the absence of the left front as a force in Parliament. Whether you agree with them or not, the Left did throw up a view point that was based on a certain ideology, and stuck with it. Those who revile them would do well to consider the effects of dilution of government ownership in banks – in the context of the global banking crisis, and the effective nationalization of most banks around the world. The stock market (not known for being very sagacious or far-sighted,) will, of course, celebrate the dilution of ownership and control that is now inevitable. This is only one example.

The Congress has much to celebrate. The Family is now firmly back, with a new heir apparent – who has bought in a sense of self-confidence to the party. While one could differ on the causes of the outcome, there is no taking away from the fact that Rahul Gandhi’s gamble of going it alone in the state of UP will be considered a success. With this result, the Congress ruling Family is back to its winning ways. Expect to see the party gain in strength from here on for some years.