US Economy - Doomsday voices become louder

A friend pointed me to an interview of Gerald Celente in FoxBusiness.com - where he predicts that the USA would face problems of tax, homelessness, and low consumer demand over the next 4 years. A bit of googling revealed that Gerald Celente is a Futurist with a seemingly high strike rate of forecasting major trends. He runs Trends Research Institute. The video is worth a watch.

Others too are worried - in varying degrees. Paul Krugman worries about the next year , while other feel that that the present monetary system is suspect.

Not pleasant reading going into the weekend. In India, we will get a "fiscal stimulus" package from the new FM this weekend - around noon tomorrow. Today's market action of a 2.5% drop seems to suggest that traders have already decided that the measures to be announced will be inadequate. Retail price for petrol and diesel has been dropped from midnight today.... the bad news does not stop for the oil marketing companies.

The power of alternate media

At last some voices offering a view not heard on the loud-but-unthinking english TV channels. I was forwarded this write up by a friend. Thanks Ashok.

Hotel Taj : icon of whose India ?

Bhanu Pratap Mehta's Managing the Rage in the Indian express offers a sensible approach for India to up the ante on Pak. While all the media debate focuses on how we can improve security in India, it is time we got to the "root cause" (to borrow a term from the Pakistanis) - i.e. how to resolve the threat from Pakistan

Lunch over.. need to go back to work !

Not for the BHL's

Despite almost a week elapsing, the events in Mumbai do not seem to have triggered serious, publicly available analysis from the people who should know their job - the defence and strategic affairs analysts. Read Strategic motivations for the Mumbai attack by George Friedman of Stratfor for a view which expounds in detail what I had hinted at in my earlier post The cost of Attack.

In It’s time Pakistan got slammed for harbouring terrorists R Vaidyanathan of IIM Bangalore advocates a response that I symphatise with, but its not for bleeding heart liberals (BHL's) as he says !

ZIRP and QE

At last a post from me on matters related to economics - but on a subject I claim no expertise on - the US markets. I follow the time honoured principle of research - what is copied from one source is plagiarism, from many sources, is research.

So here goes:
A primer on quantative easing and inflationary expectations
The mystery behind how "helicopter Ben" got his name

If this confuses you on whether we are headed for deflation or inflation, well, join the gang!

A "must view" for Pak Apologists

A popular (hate the thought !) English language TV news channel of India had, on its show this evening, an actress of yester years suggesting that the Indian public should not accuse Pakistan for its action (or inaction depending on the camp you belong to) vis a vis the recent terrorist action in Mumbai. Below is a link purporting to be a telecast of a Pak TV news channel. Do watch to figure out how far we are in our thinking as neighbours!

http://in.youtube.com/watch?v=5F4_qwtM5yY

Post-nuclear deal - can we use USA help

The rebuff that the government of Pak and India received from the Pak Army establishment on the demand to send the ISI chief to India, has presumably gotten the US secretary of state to head towards India to cool tempers. Unfortunately, at present there seems to be no tempers to cool - atleast among the political leadership.

India is at present in a position to demand the highest possible help from the USA in terms of both, equipment and intelligence to plan its rejoinder to the ISI threat. Bruce Reidel, the incoming President's South Asia advisor is no sympathiser of Pakistan. However, the ability of the currently, leaden-feet leadership of the India to turn this to India's advantage is in doubt.

If ever there was a need for a popularly elected (not nominated) political leadership in India, it is NOW.

Yet another instance of shirking a tough job

The hapless home minister had to make way for his handling of the security situation. Completely ignoring the concept of collective responsibility, the PM let the home minister go, as if the man had made some policies on his own. When it came to reallocating the tough portfolio, the PM chose to hand it to Chidambaram.

The key ability of a leader is to be able to lead from the front. At the current moment, the most important need was to provide the country and the security apparatus, a clear and focused direction, with authority flowing from the highest political office - that of the PM. Instead, the PM, yet again, elected to hide behind his colleagues and revert to a job which he is comfortable with - that of the FM !

Just goes to show that there is a difference between a leader and a bureaucrat !