Monday, August 9, 2010

When Bulls meet - Shit happens

The "Market Summit" organized by ET the last weekend revealed yet again the inability of public debate in India to rise beyond cheerleading. Despite some interesting panelists, the discussion remained largely mundane and predictable. Surprising for such a panel, many arguments were simply wrong:

Chris Wood mentioned that inflation in India was good because we need some parts of the world to grow. Whatever happened to growth with moderate inflation - the mantra the fueled the US markets for most of the nineties? Besides, why is inflation needed for growth? Is anyone making a case that India is a "full employment" economy?Inflation is BAD for the poor - who make up large portions of the Indian population, and a government that does not focus on this is hardly managing the economy sensibly. Clearly a case of poor economic argument.

Rakesh and Shankar Sharma mentioned that the Indian economy did not receive a stimulus. Rakesh even made a suggestive statement that with the youngest population in the world, the Indian economy did not need one. Unfortunately, this is completely contrary to facts. The past three years has seen double digit fiscal deficits (just add centre and state. If you take off-balance sheet items, its positively scary). The government expenditure has been well above trend. Importantly, the stimulus continues unabated - with inflation running in high double digits and interest rates low, we have negative interest rates prevailing - which even the RBI has been constrained to comment on. If this is not the largest stimulus imaginable, I am not sure we are on the same page with regard to basic definitions.

A subdued Sameer Arora did make an attempt to inject some balance in the "debate". However, in today's youthful India, it seems that voices of balance can hardly get airtime.

1 comment:

Unknown said...

I agree with you fully.GDP growth rates of 8-9-10% is being hyped a lot, this is backed by Higher Consumption & Service & Infra sector growth. Captial Goods & Manufacturing is in trouble.Inflation is out of Control.Real estate & Telco, Airlines bubble will break anytime.Not sure if RBI will have enough ammunition to fight the slowdown.

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